New in Science– Evaluating Flood Resilience for Costal Mega-Cities (May 2014)

Just published in Science. — “Recent flood disasters around the world illustrate how vulnerable coastal cities are to storm surge flooding. Despite trillions of dollars of assets located in coastal flood-prone areas, investments in protection have often been inadequate ( 8), postponed for short-term economic reasons, for lack of consensus on how to properly evaluate the return on investment, or from the fear
of making irreversible choices that become suboptimal over time.

To help inform policy decisions, Dr. Michel-Kerjan and co-authors Jeroen Aerts, Wouter Botzen, Kerry Emanuel, Ning Lin, Hans de Moel from VU Amsterdam, MIT and Princeton University have developed a multidisciplinary scientific approach to evaluate flood management strategies. It combines probabilistic risk assessment of hurricanes and storm surge with vulnerability determination of exposed assets at a census level, accounting for sources of uncertainty and the timing of investments in storm-surge flood-risk protection. We applied this methodology to New York City (NYC)—one of the most exposed coastal megacities, working with local policy-makers (…).”

Article available heree (50 page technical online material available on Science’s website). J2014Science344_EvaluatingFloodResilience(5)